点击次数：

影响因子：1.5

DOI码：10.1504/IJSTL.2021.10037012

发表刊物：International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics

关键字：Safety evaluation; Arctic marine traffic; Expert judgements; Evidential reasoning approach; Multiple criteria decision making.

摘要：The global warming has made arctic marine traffic possible, but the harsh navigation environment threatens its safety and restrains its development. It is necessary to evaluate the safety of arctic marine traffic environment. The evidential reasoning approach is used to establish a new hierarchical model for the safety evaluation due to its advantages such as being able to deal with uncertainty caused by ignorance or lack of knowledge. The model is based on objective environmental data of safety gathered from the arctic voyage of a general cargo vessel 'Tian You' and subjective judgements collected from domain experts. The safety evaluation results show that the locations in East Siberian and Laptev Sea have a generally safer environment for marine traffic than the one in Kara Sea. The proposed model validated by sensitivity analysis provides an informative and rigorous basis for decision making of arctic marine traffic.

论文类型：期刊论文

学科门类：管理学

文献类型：J

卷号：14

期号：3

页面范围：266-301

ISSN号：1756-6517

是否译文：否

发表时间：2022-04-08

收录刊物：SSCI

发布期刊链接：https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJSTL.2022.122419